Does a tree in a forest fall if no one hears it? We know the answer, of course, but we get the point.
In November 2013 I predicted Nikkei 20,000 and drew lots of charts showing the progress. It looks pretty good today.
Sadly this article created no headlines. But yes, I made money on the Nikkei.
So the 20,000 prediction is on the edge of coming to pass. As I write the Nikkei is 19,754, a day’s worth of rally away from 20,000.
Everyone in Tokyo is hoping that the index will hit 20,000 during cherry blossom time which, along with the rest of spring, is just starting. Only the Japanese would conflate a flowering tree with the stock market.
The Sakura (cherry blossom) represents the Samurai and the underlying metaphor is of a beautiful moment in life that is a shower of ephemeral beauty that erupts in abandon then dies. In the hood this is called living fast, dying young and leaving a good looking corpse.
So is this what is going to happen to the Nikkei? 20,000 followed by bust?
The short answer is no. Japan is starting to boom, at least in Tokyo. Hotels are full as a weak yen pulls in record tourist numbers. This is the tip of the iceberg of what a weak yen is creating.